WINTER 2005-06  PREVIEW   -- 4  NOV   2005  
$300/ month…   6 months $1600…  1 year $3200 

  This    forecast may surprise  some  of you.  Oh well.       The   reasoning    behind it is long.  Get  a  Soda  or    Hot  cup of  Tea and    some  cake. 

Text  that is  in  RED   BOLD  has been   so designated   because   it contains   KEY ideas.

Throughout this  forecast      you will see   the  acronym    "CF" used.   The two   letters   "CF"     stands  for    "Consensus Forecast"    which is  term that I use   to describe  the general view or a summary of what most  PWSIP  (private weather  service  Information Services)      and / or    NWS forecasters are saying.  The CF is very important in determining how the seasonal trade in Energy and Agriculture markets will unfold as well the operational side of the weather biz.       For example… State DOTs will often significantly lower their Salt and Sand purchases if the CF is for a Mild winter in their areas.       The CF often consists of  

a) the CPC (Climate Prediction Center) …whose forecast carry a lot of weight...  
b) large well known Private Weather Service Information Provider (PWSIPs) and      
c) some well known Energy/ Ag forecasters.

REVIEW   of WINTER  2004-2005

The  WxRisk.com  2004 -05    Winter forecast   was    not   nearly  as cold as most other   CF forecasts.   Over the central    & eastern US  it   quickly   became  evident       that the Winter of 2004 --05  was locked   into  a pattern of periodic episodes   that featured   significant cold vs. significant warm patterns.     The first 15 days of December featured much above normal temperatures over large portions of the central and eastern CONUS... which was quickly followed by colder than normal temperatures from December 16-31 2004. This pattern was repeated in January for the first two weeks... followed by another pattern for below normal temperatures in the second half of the month... and again in February the pattern repeated itself.

http://wxrisk.com/Seasonalforcst/WINTER05-06/1stCALLWinter.htm

The first aspect was the development of warm water in central Pacific Ocean   (a  -PDO  event)   which was forecasted to move towards the West Coast of North America by  the  CF.   The position  of warm water pool along the West Coast of North America supports    the classic cold pattern for eastern half of the US.... by favoring a sustained Ridge over Western North America and therefore a trough over eastern North America.   However this pool of warm water did  not  move   towards the West Coast of North America.      In the Atlantic Ocean there was a significant pool of warm water which developed in the Northeast Atlantic... west of Azores and southwest of the UK .   

DEC 5  SSTA   from 2004 http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-041205.gif

Some  forecasters   had  suggested  that this pool warm water was in fact a positive sign for a sustained -NAO   ( such as the Greenland Block in the Jet stream).   However this pool of water never moved throughout the winter and in  that location it actually supported a strongly positive NAO.    If the pool warm water had it shifted to the west... which finally did happen in March 2005... then indeed pattern were supported a sustained -NAO.

For  most of the nation  the   Winter  2004--05   was    darn mild.   The    storm  track    ran  from    southern   California   and the southwest states -- due to  the    weak  El Nino event...   across  the   central Plains  and   into  Northern  Middle Atlantic  and New   England.  

Interestingly even though we saw a weak El Niño event the Pacific Northwest and   Rockies did not see even normal or above normal precipitation. There are several reasons for this but primarily in my opinion the reason for the dryness of this area was the positive or westerly phase of the QBO.

DEPARTURE     from  NORMAL TEMPS  12/1/04 - 2/28/05	DEPARTURE     from  NORMAL HDD   12/1/04 - 2/28/05	DEPARTURE     from  NORMAL PRECIP  12/1/04 - 2/28/05	%   of   NORMAL PRECIP  12/1/04 - 2/28/05

WINTER   2004-05 TEMPERATURES		WINTER   2004-05  PRECIPITATION
by CLIMATE  Divisons	by    STATE  RANKING	by CLIMATE  Divisions	by    STATE  RANKING
DECEMBER   2004
by CLIMATE  Divisions	by    STATE  RANKING	by CLIMATE  Divisions	by    STATE  RANKING
JANUARY  2005
by CLIMATE  Divisions	by    STATE  RANKING	by CLIMATE  Divisions	by    STATE  RANKING
FEBRUARY    2005
by CLIMATE  Divisions	by    STATE  RANKING	by CLIMATE  Divisions	by    STATE  RANKING

  THE  BOTTOM  LINE 

WINTER FORECAST PREVIEW 2005-06     4  NOV   2005

MID WINTER    UPDATE      JAN 12

The winter forecast of 2005 -- 06 has become one of the most important winter forecasts in many years for the US and Lower Canada. Several factors have come into play;  some of which are meteorological and some of which are sociological. These factors by themselves would not place   make this  coming forecast   to be  more important than any other winter  forecast but at this particular time and at this particular place these   "undercurrents"    have come together
in a synchronous fashion  to place  added importance on all winter forecasts  for   2005-06.

The most prominent of these "undercurrents"   that are setting the framework  for the  Winter Forecast  of 2005-06 ---  be it Government  or Private weather forecasts   --   has to do with the exceptionally severe hurricane season of 2005 in the Gulf of Mexico. The early intense Hurricanes in the Gulf -- Danny & Emily did some damage but as has been widely reported it was the severe hurricanes Katrina and Rita which dated significant damage to the oil refining capacity of the US.

In addition the active hurricane season of 2005 has led some forecasting firms to assert what I consider to be specious assumptions regarding in the winter. As I will discuss shortly the argument that the extreme active hurricane season of 2005 supports the idea that the upcoming winter is going to be colder and snowy air over the Eastern US is an unproven and risky assumptions... and it is based on circular reasoning

The winter of 2005 --06 is going to feature a high level of storminess over the West Coast... along the far Upper Plains and southern Canada... and at times over the Northeast. The overall winter pattern is going to be dominated by a much stronger than normal Pacific Jet stream which will bring in a constant stream powerful storms into various portions of the West Coast of North America. As a general rule temperatures will be Below and Much Below Normal across most of the Pacific northwest... the Northern Rockies… the Great Lakes... St. Lawrence Valley... and northern New England areas. South of this area temperatures for the 3 month period will average Above Normal and as you go further south … much above normal. 

KEY ASPECTS OF THE COMING WINTER

• The Winter of  2005-06   is  going to  be a   PACIFIC  Jet winter   and the   very latest   data   on several  key    features  (such   as the  QBO PDO  MEI   and SSTA / La Nina)     now strongly support this.   These  recent    changes  has  HUGE implications    because many of the   winter forecasts  issued in by private  weather    companies  were based on   ideas  which are no longer   valid.    Thus   the    CONSENSUS FORECASTS   that called for a   colder than normal and  /or snowier than winter over the Midwest and East coast is  now in  serious    trouble.   The trick will be  weather  any  these  of  other   forecasters   see   the data   or continue to   make the same   forecast  they did      30     to  45  days ago  based on   conditions   that no longer  exist.  

• During the   short     intervals of High latitude blocking patterns in the Jet Stream over central and eastern Canada and /or Greenland… significant arctic outbreaks will occur over the eastern US …and combined with the frequent storminess of the pattern… large powerful intense winters storms (Low pressure areas)  will develop OR    threaten to develop over the various portions of the Midwest and Northeast.

• The lower Plains and Lower Rockies will    see  few  if any  cold / arctic air  outbreaks and    will see      Below Normal  precipitation   which will complicate things   for the  SPRING 2006    growing season.  The  later half of the winter  will see an   increase  precipitation over the   Upper Plains and    Great Lakes.

HOW  THIS  FORECAST   WAS  PREPARED

We have entered a new stage and weather forecasting over the last several years. While academically the interest has been in mesoscale features... the business concern as the climate continues to appear to become more unstable has been in 30-day and seasonal forecasting. There are several different techniques that meteorologists use in making a seasonal forecasts.  

Among these various methods is the use all for "ANALOGS"... the SSTA-- sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans... and  seasonal     indices and    patterns   (such as the  PDO in the  QBO     and  NAO  features)   new climate forecasting models.

THE USE OF ANALOGS

Many  (but not all)  forecasters use "Analogs"  to help make a seasonal or monthly forecast. In weather forecasting the use of analog is an attempt to understand   the  seasonal forecast period  based (in past) upon similarities between a particular set of parameters.   The idea is by searching   for similarities  with  other  years or seasons    it gives a forecaster some clues as  to how the   monthly or seasonal forecast  may  develop. .

For example one may consider the fact that most  US winters   during   strong  El Nino years bring warm and dry conditions to the Upper Plains   and Midwest   and  rather wet and cool conditions to the Deep South and changeable conditions in the Northeast.   Or a forecaster may look at say the past 6 months... 12 months... or 18 months worth of temperature  and  precipitation data over a certain section of the country and use those similarities to the current situation to assist them in making the monthly or seasonal forecast.

Done the correct way the Analog method has validity to it.   For example to simply assumed that all El Nino  events  produce   ONLY  one set of conditions in the winter months  is of course folly.    Some of the most severe winters in the last 100 years have been El Nino winters and likewise.... some of the most Mild winters in the last 100 years have also been El Nino winters.  Some forecasters  and   weather hobbyists   hold  the view   that analogs  are   not very helpful since  weather  records are incomplete or not sufficient enough to be considered as an indicator of what the upcoming seasons might hold.      For most locations temperature and precipitation data only extends back 100 or 130 years  and accurate Upper Air maps   only go back 70 years at best . That argument is   Valid  and ANY  seasonal forecast  using analogs  that is based on ONE   parameter is   very risky  and has a high degrees of failure  built within the forecast.

One way of getting around this is to use several factors parameters and cross matching the analogs to look for common ground.

   THE     RECORD    SEVERE HURRICANE  OF  2005 --
DOES IT MEAN ANYTHING  FOR THE WINTER   OF  2005-06?

As you may or may not know marketing and advertising is not the same thing as science

AUTUMN  PATTERN   2006 SO FAR...

Studies done over the some of the major metropolitan cities in the Midwest and the Northeast show a very high correlation or probability between each temperature patterns in October and November and what to expect in the following winters. It is very difficult and rather unlikely in terms of the statistical probability that when October and November are both a bald or much above normal temperatures that the pattern is likely to switch so that the entire winter would be below normal. In NYC for example there have been 22 cases where October AND November have BOTH been 1 degree or more above the median temps. In the following winters 17 of the 22 winters also had above Normal Median temps.

One of the reasons for this is that... Recent research within the  Journal of Climate has shown that the patterns which set up in October and November can often but not always the precursors to what the general winter pattern will be like in North America. Certainly this was true for the last few winters. For example in the  Autumn  of  2002 w    the  eastern US  experienced a very active and cold October and November with several systems moving up the  East coast and that pattern continued right into the Winter of 2002-03.    Likewise in the record warm winter of 2001 -- 02... there was a consistent zonal flow with no pattern amplification no cold outbreaks and very dry conditions throughout the month of October and November in the CONUS with no significant low-pressure areas developing anywhere in the Midwest or on East coast. Once again we saw that pattern continued into the winter months and we ended up with the record warm and dry winter. Another example of this idea generally working out he is the winter of 1995 1996 when again there were several systems that moved up East coast  during the autumn and that pattern continued to the winter.

Over the Pacific there are two important features. First the development of a persistent deep surface and upper Low over Alaska and second a strong Ridge of High pressure in the central and northern Pacific that is associated with the anomalously warm SSTA. These two features are acting in concert to keep a Pacific jet extremely strong and hammering across the northern Pacific into the West Coast of Canada and the Pacific Northwest.

The critical question is what happens over the eastern US and that is determined by the occurrence and duration of any high latitude blocking patterns... such as the -NAO OVER eastern Canada and Greenland. Without any high latitude blocking over eastern Canada or Greenland the persistent trough over the western US will end up resulting in a strong Ridge over the Southeast and the means storm track will be shifted far to the north running across the Upper Plains the Great Lakes and northern New England. South of that track temperatures will be warm and pattern will be dry again assuming there is no sustained high latitude blocking. However if we do see intervals of high latitude blocking not only would the pattern over the eastern half of the CONUS be much colder... but the entire eastern half the US could be hit hard during these intervals with a series a fast-moving and wet storms.

THE  NAO   FACTOR

So far the only significant blocking pattern which has occurred over eastern Canada or Greenland (which has a major impact on the weather patterns over the eastern US and Southeast Canada)... occurred in Mid October and helped develop the northeaster that hit New England and Southeast Canada. However since that time there has been almost no high latitude blocking anywhere in that area and in fact since mid-July there has only been one episode of a sustained -NAO that was Lower than -0.50.

DEC 5  SSTA   from 2005 http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-041205.gif

This year the persistent storminess and deep trough over Iceland and the UK continues to develop upwelling which does not allow for any of the warm waters in western Atlantic to flow northward as a typically might in the Gulf stream current.     

While many  see the      SSTA    set  up for the  Atlantic   Ocean   a  rather good one for  sustained intervals of      the  negative  phase of the  NAO   I do not.   In my opinion  the  SSTA   in the northern Atlantic   are  Marginal  at best  and the  powerful     Pacific  Jet  ....  often   has a tendency    to blast  a    -NAO  to hell and back.    the Idea   that   one  could see  sustained    -NAO  phase   with a  QBO    that  is now stronger    than   any other  QBO  ever    charted before and a  Increasingly -PDO    is     too far a   leap for me.

THE EL NINO  /  LA  NINA   STATUS  FOR THIS WINTER ...

Although there is little doubt that the El Nino events are somewhat is over hyped... the fact of the matter is that   El Nino and La Nina  events   are major players  and MUST be considered in  any attempt to make a seasonal forecast.  The  technical  name  for    the   El Nino and La Nina   event     is  ENSO.    The   warm   water  events ....popularly called    El Nino     can also be   referred  to   as    warm  ENSO....   while  the       cold water  events  ....  La Nina .... is    referred  to  as  cold   ENSO   events.

This map (fig 1)refers to   the    area of the world where ENSO   events   ( El Nino / la Nina)     occur.   There are two agencies  within the  US    that   have the  official  responsibility to   monitor  the  ENSO region -- CDC   ( climate    Diagnostic Center) and  CPC  (climate   Prediction center).   The  ENSO  region   consists  of   several sectors .... ENSO 1+2  (   1.2)    ENSO   3    ENSO  4   and   ENSO  3.4.   Officially  an El Nino or La Nina event is declared when the SSTA     (sea  surface temperature anomalies)    have reached a certain level for a 5 month time period   over the   ENSO   region known as    3.4 .

figure 1

This is going to be one of the cases in this report where some KEY data over the last 60 days has changed significantly.   Many of  private weather  services...  as well as CPC...  and some  weather hobbyists     that issued     their winter    forecast   back in early September   and   early OCT   were  heavily   premised on the idea   that    there   was NOT   going to be a   COLD ENSO (La Nina )  or    warm    ENSO  ( El Nino)  event. up

This image  is the current sea surface temperature map for the entire world   which is available to the public from the U.S. Navy weather web site. As you can see there is a large area of rather cold water which is developed along the equator Pacific near the coast the Peru which is the ENSO 1.2 region. Later on I will go back to this map and talk about the other important features.

TABLE     1
CMB'S  ENSO    FORECAST		ECMWF   ENSO  3.4     Forecast	IRI   CLIMATE   MODEL   FORECAST 19    FORECAST MODELS
REGION 1.2	REGION 3.4	OCT    16	EARLY    SEPT	EARLY   OCT
GRAPH 1	GRAPH 2	GRAPH 3	GRAPH 4	GRAPH 5

It may be    that through   the  winter... that because of the flawed criteria of the CPC...  they never get around to officially declaring a   La Nina event.   Rest assured however that with the temperatures dropping in the ENSO 3.4 region and the much more rapid drop  under way in region 1.2      the  atmosphere  will   "read "   this  as   de facto La  Nina. Waiting for the CPC to eventually come around and declaring  a La Nina event... or not... is really quite irrelevant.    The fact it is that the  SEPT   and OCT     forecast models used  to forecast  SSTA   are busting with regard to the developing cold water in these areas.  The  result--    a premise that many forecasts were based upon in September and October are in serious trouble.

Besides the problem of the climate models and their inability to forecast the sea surface temperature anomalies correctly and the flawed assumptions that some may have made as we head towards the winter regarding the possible La Nina event ... we can use the current SSTA (sea surface temperature anomalies) in both ENSO areas of 1.2 and 3.4 to find matches to other years.

WEB SITES

POSSIBLE  ANALOG    YEARS   -  WHICH ONES ARE SIMILAR TO  THE CURRENT SITUATION IN THE
ENSO  REGIONS ?

  
KEY  POINT    THE  BEST   3 MATCHES   to  ENSO 1.2  and   3.4     THIS  year 1990    1977   and 1959 ... WHICH   EQUATES  TO THE WINTERS  OF   1990-91   1977 -78    and 1959-60  

MEI   INDEX

The  folks   over   at CDC     - Climate Diagnostic Center   have developed  a    More complete   way of   measuring  ENSO   events .... be it a   El Nino   or La Nina event. The  MEI   or  Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)    measure       all  El Nino    and  La Nina    events  on six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific.    ( sea-level pressure...  zonal   surface winds...   meridian   surface winds....  sea surface temperature...   surface air temperature...  and total cloudiness as a fraction of the sky

Note the MEI  values  were    close  to   1.00  in the  SPRING  of  2005   but never reached   that level... and since  the Summer of   2005 have been dropping   and  have Now  dropped  BELOW  ZERO     into  Negative   Values   as of  OCT 2005

  Lets see   what      other   Years match the   MEI   of   2005 ....   http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/

KEY  POINT    THE  BEST   3 MATCHES   to  MEI    OF  2005 ....   year 1980    1990   and 1995 ...    which    equates   to the  WINTERS  OF   1980-81   1990 -91   and 1995-96  

    QBO   INDEX

http://www.atmos.ucla.edu/~cwhung/qbo.html
http://strat-www.met.fu-berlin.de/products/cdrom/html/section5.html
http://ugamp.nerc.ac.uk/hot/ajh/qbo.htm

The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is  a Band of    High level  zonal winds  found   over the Equatorial  at very high  altitudes ( even above the  Jet Stream).  It is  a very well known   periodic oscillation in atmosphere.     The has been a lot of research done  over the last  10 years that shows the  QBO  has significant impact of overall climate patterns ...  as well as Winter  Weather patterns  as well as the    Hurricane  season.     The period of the  QBO  "oscillation"    is about  (a little over) two years.    The   QBO  has two  "phases"   with  occur within the    1 Oscillation  cycle-- the  Easterly  or  NEGATIVE  phase   and the   WESTERLY or Positive  phase.      Within the  meteorological    community   the  QBO  is    used   heavily by some   as a key ingredient  to figuring   out  what  the Winter  pattern across  North  America might be... while other forecasters  dont think its  all  that relevant.

In my opinion   However   much of  the  discussion   is mis-directed   towards    How and why  the   QBO is  important     For  example  it has been asserted that  during the Winter   season....the Eastern  half of the  US is often  cold and   snowier than  Normal  when  the  QBO is in   Westerly   or Positive phase   while  others  have asserted  that the   Easterly or Negative Phase  is better  for  colder and snowier   Eastern  US  winters.

This  LINK   has the   QBO  data  going back to  1948.   It is my position that the  QBO   index is  NOT a   indices  that    directly   relates to  the   overall pattern    per  se ...be it  Winter...  Spring...Summer  or   Autumn.    The reason  why I   think the  QBO   is  important  is that it   tell us   what the    Pacific  Jet    is  going to be  doing    over the  central and eastern Pacific.    Good   weather  forecasters    should   be willing to   tell you that if   you get the  West coast of North America    wrong ...    you get  EVERYTHING       else-- the  Rockies  to the Plains     to the Midwest   to the  Deep South and East coast    wrong as well.      Perhaps  this   explains   why   there are often so many   snow   and cold  forecasts for the eastern   US  out there  that are so often wrong  or  over hyped.

It is My contention  that   a    East or Negative Phase of the  QBO as we  go into the  Winter months   correlates  to a  more active and stronger    Pacific Jet   stream...  which means   more rains   and  storminess for the Pacific  NW and  West coast  and     BIG   problems   for Meteorologists    that are trying to    figure   the  Medium range forecast .   A   QBO   value that is    near    zero as we  go into the  Winter months  --- say     from +5.0  to  -5.0      implies a   Pacific Jet  that is  favor   for     large scale  pattern shifts and changes  -- called pattern amplification and   de-amplification.  A  QBO    value that is    strongly  positive  as we  go into the  Winter months ...say   above  +6.0  or higher   almost always     implies   a  lack of cold air  build up in Canada and  a Milder winter for the CONUS . 

Here  are the   current    QBO  values   for   2005.

It is now    impossible for the   QBO  to  rise   fast enough   so that the values   reaches   zero  by JAN  or  FEB  2006.     t This  map shows   what the      Temperature anomalies   where like in the    WINTERS   where the QBO  was -18 or lower. As  you can     the  WARM   bias  is clearly shown over the    Eastern US.

We are  searching for  a     Year believe  that    was  slightly    negative   in  Jan and  Feb.... the dropped  like    Rock   and  has  stayed amazingly   low    thru the AUTUMN....  The  SEPT    QBO  value   was  there lowest ever  for any SEPT   recorded  and 3rd lowest ever !    The OCT   QBO value is the  Lowest QBO value   EVER!!!I  Thus  finding a    QBO     season   that   showed MODERATE  negative   values -- say  -12   or  -15       through the  Late Summer and  Autumn seasons   is NOT  good enough to  be considered as a Analog

KEY  POINT    THE  BEST   3 MATCHES   to  QBO    OF  2005 ....   year 1974    1979   and 1965 ...    which    equates   to the  WINTERS  OF   1974-75   1979 -80   and 1965-66  

PDO   INDEX

Over the  last   10 years there has been a significant amount of   research  done  on a   climate pattern   that   is   called the  PDO in the weather biz.  The PDO     or   "Pacific Decadal Oscillation"     a long-lived   climate  pattern   that    exists over the northern Pacific Ocean.  It    can some   have   similar   impacts   to  El Nino  / La Nina  events.   While the PDO  and  ENSO  events   have similar climate   "fingerprints"...   they have very different behaviors in time.  First  a  phase of the PDO  can persist for 20-to-30 years while typical ENSO events persisted for 6 to 18 months.    Within that  20-30 year  PDO cycle    once  phase   is   more  favored   than the other.     For  example  when the  PDO  is in the    "Negative  Phase"    most of the time  the PDO  will run in    the Negative pattern  with  just  a   few  instances of  PDO   developing a     Positive  Phase... and  vice  versa.          Second the PDO directly affects North America with secondary impacts over the tropics - the opposite is true for ENSO.     Within     the long  cycle of a  PDO   which  can run .

The  PDO   involves the location  and intensity   of   large pools of  warm and /or cold   Seas Surface   Temperature anomalies  (SSTAs)   in the  central and   eastern areas of the  Northern Pacific.  Why is this important? Again     research  has  shown that large  areas  of   warm and cold  water   pools     called     SSTA  couplets    STRONGLY affect the    Jet stream pattern and the   positions of    Ridges and troughs  within   the Jet Stream.

This is   diagram   shows    you    the Two phases  of the   PDO... the      BLUE  color    represents   very cold  SSTA...    the  Green    cool SSTA....   the  
RED color  very  warm SSTA and the  Yellow   warm SSTA.

    This map  explains     HOW  and  why the   PDO affects the pattern   across  North   America.  Click on the Maps to see the     Full  size.   As you can see when the PDO is in the Positive or WARM  phase... the warm sea surface temperature anomalies along the West Coast North America strongly supports a  ridge developing over the western portions of the continent and locking this Ridge in   place.    Of course if you have a Ridge over the West Coast then downstream you have to have a trough.... (for every action there is the equal opposite reaction)... which in this case is over the eastern third of the US. This pattern is known as the +PNA and it is the classic signature for a cold weather pattern. The arctic air masses from the Arctic regions and northern Canada follow the Jet stream down into this trough which results in sustained intervals of below row temperatures cold water. On the West Coast the Ridge of High-pressure means clear skies very little storminess and Above normal temperatures.

However the opposite is true what we had a negative or cold phase of the PDO. In this case the warm water is located out in the Central Pacific Ocean and cold water develops along the West Coast North America. This results in the jet stream developing a trough along the West coast... and of course downstream a Ridge develops over the eastern half the US. This sort of pattern results in a very cold and stormy West Coast with areas such as a Seattle and Portland saying snowstorms in the very strong cases out of the negative phase PDO... and the central and eastern US saying below normal precipitation and above mobile temperatures.

The correlation between the temperature patterns across North America and PDO phase is very strong and it's very hard to ignore.

Lets take a look at  a few winters.... Here  are the   SSTA maps   from the winter of  1995-96   which  was      a  cold winter  but  also the snowiest winter   ever for most of the  eastern US ... and     the SSTA maps   of  OCT and NOV  2002... which   lead to the     stormy   and   cold winter of 2002-03.       In both  cases  Note  how the  WARM   SSTAs  are  located    up against  the    West coast of  Canada   and /or  Gulf of  Alaska ... and the cold water is  out in the central  Pacific  Ocean.

NOV  & DEC 1995		OCT  & NOV   2002

 

These  two maps are the SSTA   from  OCT   7 and  26th  respectively.  As  you can clearly  see   the  warm SSTAs  are      NOT anywhere   near the West coast... but out  in the  central North Pacific and   the  along the   west coast of  N America  has turned MUCH colder     by OCT 26.  This  the   PDO  is   in  the  NEGATIVE phase.... and NOT  in anyway a  Positive PDO.    Thus  if  the   early winter  forecast of the CF    is based on a forecast on  a      warm  or Positive Phase   PDO....   (ridge on the West coast trough over the   East coast  of  the   US)  that forecast     is in  deep  trouble.

OCT  7           OCT  27  

 

 

As you can see from this table when many of the early winter forecast for issued the PDO was either slightly positive or had just gone into the weakly negative value and there was some speculation that the PDO was going to move back into the positive side as we moved towards Winter. Since the positive phase of the PDO supports a deep awful the eastern US many these early winter forecast call for Below Normal temperatures and potential storminess is for the eastern half the US.

However as you can see from the table the October PDO has taken a dramatic turn into the negative values. Remember a weather forecast is a sequence of events that you expect to happen which is going to lead to a certain result. Given how much so many of the parameters have changed in the last two months is now really quite obvious that many of the consensus winter forecasts issued earlier in the autumn are now in DEEP trouble.

This  map shows    what the  Mean temps  were in the winter months   where the   PDO   in OCT  was    between  MINUS 1.00  and   MINUS  1.62.	This  map shows    what the  Mean temps  were in the winter months   where the   PDO   in OCT  was    between  MINUS 1.00  and   MINUS  1.62  and there  was  NO  La Nina / El Nino  or   very weak one.

To be sure  it is      barely within   the  realm of  possibility that    the PDO  could suddenly  turn   around and move into the  positive   phase  once again    during the   winter.  But  research shows that   there have been    16   October and Novembers   where the PDO  was   Negative    in BOTH months.  Only  in 5 of those cases did the PDO    move   back into  POS values   for   1 of the 3  winter months.

23  times   since  1900    the PDO   has  had a OCT  value of  -1.00 or lower.   In 18 of those  23   cases... the PDO stayed negative all winter    through. The  5   exceptions   were   the   negative PDO events  of 1928 1933 1939 2000   2001.

CLIMATE  MODELS

The use of climate models in making seasonal and long-range weather forecasting is a matter of considerable dispute within the meteorological community. The practice has been going on for several years and recently there was an upgrade in one of the better known climate models used. The old climate model --known as the AGCM --had a severe cold bias. The cold bias exists because the AGCM model is heavily based upon the GFS ... which it is the daily global model used by NCEP that is issued four times a day out to 16 days and can be accessed at many locations on the Internet. Recently the folks at EMC and CPC have started running a new climate model known as the CFS with the hopes that this would be a better climate model. That has proven to be exceptionally false in every sense. Despite the best efforts of some very skilled scientists and programmers the fact of the matter is that the CFS is useless with NO forecast skill whatsoever.

This first forecast map from the CFS was run in the second half of September 2004 and was a precipitation forecast covering the PERIOD of November December 2004 January 2005... in other words the first half of the Winter 2004-05.
    As you can see from the model.... it forecasted large areas of much below normal precipitation over southeastern Canada the lower Mississippi Valley and the Pacific Northwest as well as the Great Basin. The second map shows you what actually happened in the period of November December 2004 / January 2005. As you can see the precipitation forecast was unbelievably bad in every conceivable possible way. Whereas the model forecasted a very dry area over the Great Basin in fact it was exceptionally wet and there were large areas of much above normal precipitation across the lower Plains ... the heart of the Mississippi Valley and into the Midwest. Perhaps the only aspect of this forecast that turn out to be reasonably correct was the dryness over southeastern Canada.

This second map shows the temperature forecast began for the same period of November December 2004/ January 2005. As you can see the CFS model in late September 2004 was showing a very cold first half of the winter over the entire eastern two thirds of the US... from the Plains to the East coast and over southeast Canada... and from the second map we can see that the forecast was a catastrophically bad one in every sense of the word. Only over eastern Canada where temperatures below normal... and all of the Rockies planes made last Deep South and middle Atlantic region saw temperatures that were Above and Much Above normal. Frankly you would of done better by throwing darts at a board.

Given the atrociously bad performance of the CFS model you would think that forecasters especially within the private sector would avoid using the CFS under all conditions but in fact that is not the case.

Indeed many of the private energy forecasts that make up the Consensus Forecast seem to have a t cold forecast fo