UPDATED  09.14.04    TIME:   12:35

This site is possible because of the U.S. Constitution, the Internet  and the National Weather Service. Day in and day out... when it comes to weather that is violent dangerous and destructive...NWS forecasters are the best forecasters in the world in my opinion. And the weather in the USA is the world's most varied and difficult place to forecast. The forecasters at NWS save lives EVERY DAY.   I do NOT.    I can and l DO make it easier to plan and help business operations  along help Grain & energy traders  make More $$$.  But the fact is without the vastly improved warnings, new radar, models that NWS operates,  produces and runs, many of us would probably have experienced some sort weather disaster on a personal level. The reason why the loss of lives and property has been dropping over the last 20 years from Tornadoes, 'canes, Flash Floods, Noreasters etc is solely because of the NWS.  That is just the way it is.

I had my chance with NWS and I couldn't hack it. Running this site and business has forced me to make some changes and if I worked as hard in NWS as I have on this site... well, things would be different. 

NWS forecasters make tough calls... affecting a lot of people. They save lives. I can help you make Money... but  LIVES and property are far more important.    There can more pressure involved in issue watches and warnings than you think.   If most branches of the Federal Govt. operated like the scientists of NOAA in general and NWS in particular then we would all pay a lot less taxes.

These remarks  appear to have surprised some folks. There seems to be a large portion of the weather hobbyist community and some private meteorologists that think NWS is either Great or wretched. Oh well... I call 'em as I see them.  I have lavishly praised  NWS   forecasts and forecasters before  and I will do so agian. On the other hand.... CPC over the past 16 months has been terrible and I have made a LOT of money going against them in the seasonal forecast department.   Just wanted to clear that up.             ---  DT

2/22-23/03    Dear Sir,

I have written you once or twice before to show my faith and   appreciation in your forecasts, but today took the cake. I saw your  final call today showing an 8-12" range for my home area (Prince  Frederick, MD / Calvert County). My wife thought I was nuts, when I  told her. Well, it snowed and snowed some more tonight, it reminded me of my childhood in West Virginia.....huge flakes raining down.  Of course the weather dopes around here, called for some snow, but
mostly sleet in my area (2 - 4 inches max). Well, I had to jump off  the sofa shortly after 11:10 pm this evening because Topper what's his  name on WUSA 9 (CBS) said Sothern Maryland would top out at 1 maybe 2  (not new stuff, but total)  inches by morning. I am glad to report you  nailed it  AGAIN!........I measured 10 inches of fresh snow in several
spots in my "level" yard and driveway. Thank you for being reliable.  Could you give Bob Ryan, Doug Hill and Topper ??? a refresher course?   Tell them to rely on more than one model. God, sometimes I think they
feel weather only happens in DC, Fairfax County and Montgomery County.

A Believer in Wxrisk,

Jack Cxxxxxll   Prince Frederick, MD  PS - I have converted my wife.       ( ----Hmmmmmm DT-ism?  start of a new religion? Tomorrow on the next Mauty Povich show)

DT:

Gracious fess up on hugh bust. (FEB 27-28)  ps - JB / C osgrove were also hugh busts on this storm (NE)

Hard to believe all three of you cratered...GFS was accurate most  of the way with no big deal happening! Z Goldstein

Don't stress too much - you weren't alone. This was a strange one. Over this way, Lynchburg got mostly IP, ZR when Amherst, only about 15 miles to the N got over 7" of SN. NWS Blacksburg were major Busters on this - they had forecasted a changeover to mostly SN/IP by mid to late afternoon in the ROA CWA with 3-7" accumulations and by 3PM, the precip was over.( They suck really bad over there anyway) None of your counterparts hit this either - you were in good company!

Brian   Boones Mill, VA 

A little late on the uptake here...

But congrats on your stellar job so far this winter.   I "discovered" you last year, from Glenn Schwartz's links on his
site at NBC10 in Philly (I live in South Jersey). Last winter, as you well know, was not so great for you, but your winter forecast seemed to explain that pretty well. 

I check your site frequently, as a would-be weather hobbyist. I appreciate your time and expertise, and it seems you really are on a roll. You deserve to gloat a bit in your recent postings.

I was wondering why--with your deep respect for Paul Kocin--why TWC so often blows these things. You alluded to it a bit in your recent posting, but is he hampered by their procedures/models/??? I think he does a good job, but when you look at TWC some time out from an event, they're prone to have it 50 degrees and sunny--then the night before, they call for a blizzard. It's bizarre. Do they just have too much ground to cover?

Anyway, congrats on a job well done.
Bill Cxxxxxx

  You're definitely right about the local media in general downplaying it completely until way too late. Regardless of the exact time the alarm was sounded on each station, your forecast was exceptional for this event and I'm glad I was reading the updates on your site. I think the most impressive aspect was your statement from 5 or 6 days away predicting the ice/snow line would make it as far south as Richmond, despite the models showing a much warmer scenario... and in the end, the ice/snow line ended up within 50 or 80 miles of Richmond! For my location (Sterling, VA), all the forecast maps from first call through final call were correct, as they only honed in the range on the amounts with each new issuance. Congratulations on the excellent forecast and good luck on future ones.     -Brett

2/15 Dave,
First, I'd like to commend you on your great forecasts. I've been    a fan of you and your website for years- Actually, we used to email   a bit back during the winter of 2000-1. I'm a Yale student and my name is Dan XXXXXXX

I am a forecaster myself, albeit an amatuer who has a  daily column in the Yale newspaper. And, for my Friday column, I
backed off completely for snow in New Haven for the first impulse  (which I never really hyped that much) but went with the CHANCE of  snow Sunday-Monday. Actually, I wasn't too confident in snow from the  second wave based on the model trends and the Hulk Hogan type High  settling into the Northeast.     Needless to say, I am very excited by today's model runs. They  are trending further north while the upper pattern is showing significant backing. Indeed, I am expecting this trend to continue   and for the NWS offices to begin honking tomorrow.       HOWEVER, I am not as gung-ho as you on the potential accumulations. You say on your website that this storm could be the  most significant over LI CT NYC etc since Jan '96. Here in New Haven, we've seen 3 one foot storms since then (all occurring during the winter of 00-01, Dec. 30, Feb. 5, and Mar. 5-7...we got 16" on the 5th of feb and 13 from the one in march and about 12 from the one in dec).

Plus, parts of this region (including my hometown of Danbury, Ct.) got 1-2 ft from the April Fool's day storm. Do you really think we could  get 18" from this? If I had to make a forecast tonight, it would be  for 6-9" (obviously with more possible)-
I know you must be EXTREMELY BUSY but ifyou could just reply with  a few sentences as to why you think we will get clobbered as you do,  that would be much appreciated. Because as of right now, I don't see the crippling snow event that you are projecting.

Thanks in advance, and keep up the great work!
Dan XXXXXXX

You really nailed this historic snow earlier than anyone!!!!! Great job!   Ralph harstock --Westminster,MD

2/18 Dear Mr. Tolleris:

I am very impressed with your site and forecasting abilities especially in light of the recent NE Blizzard that you forecasted 10 days prior. I was interested in reading your comments on the Media Hype Snowstorm of March 6-7 2001 but the link is no longer working. Is there any way for me to access it another way?

Thanks,  Anthony

DT,
I HAVE SEVERAL TIMES E-MAILED YOU WITH WHAT I THOUGHT WERE  NEGATIVE COMMENTS MADE TOWARDS xxxxxx. HOWEVER, I AM  MAN ENOUGH TO TELL YOU THAT YOU WIPED THE PANTS OFF
THEM THIS TIME WITH PROBABLY THE MOST "BALLSEY" (CAN'T THINK OF A BETTER WORD) FORECAST OF AN OVERRUNNING   STORM I HAVE EVER SEEN.

J. GRANOWSKI WARWICK (2ft.) NY

2/9 THANK YOU! For the 50/50 Low –NAO and +PNA explanation. I didn’t know what the 50/50 Low was and the relationships between them, especially the global patterns. This stuff is SO COOL! Nanette smith

2/10 You were right. It was No BIG Deal. In fact nothing. And they wrong.  In Phila it is 34 and snowing, but NOTHING laying. Will not even get an inch. Mitch Fitzpatrick 

9/6/02 David

Yes, I am allowing my subscription to expire at this time. I plan to renew next May/June. I have very much enjoyed your newsletter. It has been quite helpful. I think your idea of 900 number is a good one. I especially like your idea of dropping the price of the individual newsletter. This is the fifth year I have done this summer trade. I watched your website for two of those years but the newsletter was much more helpful and worth the $$. I will continue to keep an eye on your website during the off months. I also follow A/C Trading which I think is one of your customers. At least they seem to quote your newsletter almost verbatim. Good luck till next season.

Scott O'Bxxxxxxxxx

9/7/02 Good afternoon,
Pat & Mike L-----t here. We have been MORE than satisfied with your services; they have proven to be extremely helpful in our trading. Your forecasts are top-notch and I would not hesitate to recommend your service.

Best Regards and our Thanks for a great trading month. Made some BIG $$$ off of you. Mike & Pat

9/22 WXman,
Could I have permission to use your recon radar pic on the air here in New Orleans.
Thanks a ton and love your insight.

Brad Panovich
Meteorologist WWL-TV New Orleans, LA

 Dan Meador
As a meteorologist working with Dr. Neil Frank, I have read your site for over a year! 

From a  Commodities  Forum / message board
Very professionally stated    Mark - Sunday at 3:31 PM
In response to: Sunday Weather Update

My complements to the very professional manner in which the very informative weather update was stated. Both the facts and congratulations to others were noted and appreciated.

WxDave's posting of the weather    Russ - Sunday at 8:34 PM   AUG 11 2002

wow, WXDave....you give a rainy forecast and look at how many new   friends you make?,,,for the life of me i can see no difference in his  stlye of posting,,,when he was saying hot & dry, which he was right  more so over the majority of other forecasters & areas included,  some folks thought you where overly bullish and arrogant,,,i saw  the irony in your posting of other forecaster's calls missing out   ,,,i would like to know where has all the rain fallen that the  others forecasters have called for over the past 2 months, all  the while WXDave gave little chance and was correct the majority of the time,,,for my area you have nailed it most times than not ,,,and yes some areas in the "belts" have seen no relief to the heat or dry as of yet,,,the only difference i can see in his latest  posting was that it included rain instead of dry and he also  complimented a couple other wx guys as he has done with the dry forecasts before also,,,Keep up the GOOD work WXDave!Russ

Re: Time for me to combat some really bad weather forecasts out there.... -- DH Tolleris
Posted by johnah ® , Wed, May 22, 2002, 10:12:25 Top of thread Archive
DH: I think everyone is very busy right now -at least in the ECB - trying to get into corn planting . Be assured that this is a year when we really appreciate your insight and weather predictions - you've really helped.

JULY 10
Dave    Over the past few weeks you have made consistently correct calls. This is the first one that is a contradiction of your previous bias. Needless to say this is an important one. Make the call as you see it, but give us your best shot.
Bill Plummer  www.frontierrisk.com

JULY18  David,

I hope for your business & reputation --that you  get this one big forecast correct. This is without a doubt the single biggest forecast in 10 years for the grains. GOOD LUCK!  You have gotten many right but this one is HUGE and hope you can stand alone and be correct!

7/16
Don't worry about it Dave. In fact, it's your willingness to go against the trend and call "a spade a spade" that we like about you. Don't let them get to you. I've been through many, many of these markets and we all make mistakes of emotion. Just don't let it change you though.    J.Gerlach

7/19 hang in there pal !!!!!! just keep calling it like you see it. You're batting a 1000.

The Boys from Cedar Rapids ( we didn't get enogh rain to wet the side walk, but my farmer buddy in Olin got 6 inches)

JULY 19

Its refreshing to have another voice out there, because years back this event would have been characterized as 50% coverage of a 1/2 and a crop saving rain...     Last night we were laughing about xxxxxxe, at the local grain exchange bar ..he has been calling for a drought EVERY year since 89 and now we are close and he is calling for rain?

I hope this is your "big call" and it is right on!   DS

7/20 from KD 
keep up the good work! I am the farmer in central ill and have put on huge long positions because of your forecast last thursday . Looks like the next front will also be way to light to benefit our crops here in  c ill . We are literally burning up. Onlly .4 tenths in the last 39    days . We are in big troiuble. What is your projected rainfall amounts  I 80 and south in to il in and ohio?

Soul Doctor 7/21
Man, I'm a beliver in your forecasting abilities ! You said what you felt, and calls for rain were BUST. 
Just wanted to say, truely excellent Job !!!!  You made me some  BIG   Money.   Will be in touch with you tomorrow on the subscription.    I've read a several forecasters, none nailed this past week like you did. That says alot.
Very impressed.   Looks like you really dig into weather . I like that. Someone who digs in and combs through everything, and sticks to their guns.

7/21 Mr  B. Winbrone  Sr Trader at Cargill
great call this weekend- blew your competition away!! Best forecast I have seen in 5 years

D.Splika  Splka Trading7/22
I agree, BEST and most important weather CALL in the last 10 years... Lets see on the East rain guesses. David Slipka

7/22
DT   I must tell you with a good feeling, these last 10 reports you have presented have   been very well done. You begin with a statement of fact which is clear and  leads the reader to get right to the big picture. You then explain and
describe point by point where an event will be. Only a blind person would   not be able to follow your forecast material now!

7/22  Dear Dave,

Thank you, Thank You, THANK YOU!
Thank you for many things:
1) For including me on your WxRisk e-mail list.
2) For being an independent hard worker, dedicated to excellence, not being afraid to "Fight the Crowd".
3) For being eager to use the latest and best available data and technology.
4) For expanding your horizons professionally.
5) For not being a trader with a "vested" interest.

I hope to develop a mutually beneficial relationship with you in the days ahead.

Best Regards,

William C. Fordham
C&S Grain Market Consulting

Dear Mr. Tolleris,
Thank you for the 2 week trial. Your weather forecasting  is excellent as demonstrated by the past 2 weeks.
At this time I am re-organizing my trading business and have been using these trial offers to evaluate which services to connect to when I am up and running again.   I will recommend your service to others and definitely
consider it during the Mar-Sep periods.  Thanks again.  C Miller

Dear DT:

I thank you for the trial opportunity. I do believe that you are the best  around. I am not able to subscribe to your service now. Things are just to  tight here. I hope I will be better off in the future.  Continue giving your best, which is excellent work. Your clients are very  fortunate to have you. You do give them a big edge.

Respectfully,   JK

Good Job
Paul K. - 7/23 Tuesday at 11:38 PM
In response to: Heat Dome Cometh...

I've followed your posts and know you've taken a lot of shots from others for your viewpoint.   I personally share your opinion on the forecast and applaud that you stood your ground for what you believe. Good job and hope the dome verifies for   a nice move up in beans

Posted By: ADD   Date: Monday, 22 July 2002, at 4:28 p.m.

In Response To: Much bigger than expected DROP in Beans & Corns (DT wxrisk)
My comment.....appreciate your outlook on the weather. Most accurate I have seen all Summer. Thanks.

7/24
Hi DT wxrisk, Don't worry what others say,I follow your reports and they are as   accurate as any I have seen.Based on what you said last week,I tried to get into beans late friday(long)and missed the boat!...continue to post ,as I'm
sure I'm not the only one who follows your reports.Anyone who tried to short    the grains or got out based on others info, will figure it out for themselves ...waiting for your next update...Liddy

Hi Dave,

I love your site as well as your posts -------. I would like to know, since yours is the only site I've come across that displays them (in your discussions), where can I get a look at the AVNx output in real time? Is is something available real time or is it a service you pay for?
Thanx in advance & stay healthy :),

Sean F. Downey

Subject: Re: about the RSM -- from WXRISK   Date: Fri, 26 Oct 2001   From: Allan Huffman
Dear Sirs

My name is actually Allan Huffman. I am a freestyle met, who is obsessed with weather, especailly winter weather. I got my B.S and M.S from NC State in meteorology, and am currently a  meteorologist working for a company that is contracted out to the EPA. I want to get into forecasting  eventually for sure. By the way, I learned more about practical long range forecasting from your site than I ever did in grad school, even though NC State is a great school. Anyways, thanks alot and keep up the
good work. Allan Huffman

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subject: Great job Dave....    Date: Thu, 25 Oct 2001     From: Boling584@cs.com 
Wow good call Dave on the plains Blizzard. Once Again You were there first!     I hope to see many more good snow storms in the north plains area this winter.
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Subject: Re: Another winter forecast!
Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2001      From: Kent Graham     

DT keep the good forecasts coming. - KentSu
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Subject: Winter 2001-02    Date: Thu, 11 Oct 2001   From: "Mielke, Michael E"

WxMan;

I am anxiously awaiting your winter forecast for the Great Lakes (lower MI).  I'm hoping for another "real" winter this year, similar to last year. Last year, we had a major snow early in Dec. and the snow cover remained measurable through Feb.! Keep up the great work and the great site!

Mike Mielke
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subject: GW BUSH COMES OF AGE AND POWER
Date: Sat, 22 Sep 2001     From:  Charles  Brady
Hello, Dave:

Great essay; total agreement from me. .. Your choice/command of language is also very well demonstrated.
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Subject: Praise     Date: Thu, 20 Sep 2001 1   From: Don Sutherland
Comments:

Thank you very much for adding these to your site. You are doing an outstanding job. I have a number of photos pertaining to Americans rallying together under the "Courage, Inspiration, Unity" section of my website (http://worldimages.homestead.com). If you wish, you can feel free to use any of the photos. More will be added in coming days after my
weekend trip to Washington, D.C.

Keep up the terrific work and great forecasts! --Don
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Subject:    Date: Wed, 19 Sep 2001   From: "Travis Witcher"

WxMan,
If you ever decide to run for public office, let me know & I will contribute to your campaign!
Excellent Post! God Bless

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Subject: This is War!   Date: Mon, 17 Sep 2001    From: "Lofton, Greg H"
DT,

Your are very correct from you're "Seeking Justice" piece.   This is and should be WAR. Though I do not believe that most Americans   understand the scope and drive of this. As you said, they HATE US! No  matter what we do, they will continue to attack us. And from the reports out of China late last night, they have already planned, and are trying to implement, another series of attacks after we respond!

The 'war' is internal as-well-as external, and should be. A Declaration of  War should be made against ALL TERRORISM! Any group, within the US or external to the US, that utilizes terror as a weapon of choice should be put  on notice that their days are up. This should not be limited to the Islamic Jihad or other groups that are more obvious to us and could be linked all
the way to Iraq. War must be declared and we must strive with all of our  resources to eliminate all groups that have practiced and continues to practice terrorism.

This should include the IRA, Aryan Nation, KKK, Black Panthers, Pro-Life  Fanatics, etc. that choose to use terror to achieve their objectives. Civilized people resolve problems in a civil manner. Fanatics only know and  understand ONE WAY - FORCE.

All such groups should be eliminated and all financial support to be eroded.  Anyone who would continue to financially support these groups after September 11, 2001, should be tried as treason!

Greg

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Subject: Prasie   Date Sun, 16 Sep 2001     Richard C. La Bella

Comments:
Your' Web Site is excellent, concise and informative.  The article "Justice" should be read by all.
=================================================================
subject: Good weather forecast...   Date: Mon, 20 Aug 2001      From: Duane Lowry at Rooser.com

David Tolleris:
Hats off to you...you were one of a VERY FEW who noticed the change in  pattern. But it appears that most market watchers, aka "the street" were  caught off gaurd by this change. Personally, I believe we have too many  "map/model readers" and not enough true weather forecasters left in this  field. Predicting weather is similar to forecasting markets...it is an  art form that requires more complete interpretation than just reading  maps/charts. These maps/charts are valuable tools, but there are other
factors that are also very important. You may well be a very complete,  well-rounded forecaster.
Thanks for the alert to your website/service.

Thanks again, DL Roster.com
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subject:   High  Praise      Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2001      From: Andy Weingarten

David:

I've been meaning to write you to compliment you on your web site. I   find the models section particularly helpful. I am also a fan of your style  of forecasting. You are willing to go out on a limb and risk being wrong  rather than just following the pack who may be even more likely to be  wrong. I employ a similar style. I am a meteorologist with APB Energy, an
energy brokerage firm in Louisville, Kentucky.    .... Either way, keep up the good work on the web site!

Regards,
Andy Weingarten
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subject: :Praise    Date: Thu, 26 Jul 2001    From: "Jerry Gerlach"

To Elevators and Ag Interests:

Mr Tolleris has been on the leading edge lately of important forecasts. If  any of you are interested in his daily email service, please call him. Ask about a special 3 month package for Ag Customers (Aug-Sep-Oct). This should get everyone through the fall harvest season.
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Subject: Praise     Date: Mon, 9 Apr 2001   From : Roderick Yost
Comments:

I just wanted to add my Praise of your weather page. You have a great track record I hope you can keep it up.  When I hear the local weather on the radio I can say to myself, oh ya I already know that, Dave was talking  about that three or four days ago. I am a farmer and am interested in your forcasts for the upcoming growing season. The forcasts that I have hearing so far are saying that after April 23 the weather is suppose to clear up and allow for a ggod planting season. They are also forcasting a good growing season so no worries ! I don't know if I can believe them. I will be waiting to hear your summer forcast. I hope you do well in the art and science of weather. Weather is fascinating never a dull moment. Thanks Rod Yost

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subject: next week   Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001     From: (Michael Moriarty

NICE ANALYSIS!
I coudn't agree MORE w/ your thoughts...way to exercise prudence!!   Your approach is exemplary in handling such a system this far in   advance. Kudos to you

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subject: good hype, bad hype   Date: Fri, 16 Mar 2001      From: Kevin Myatt

There's an important difference in the kinds of "hype" to be concerned    about.

Good hype is what your Web site and certain other sources do -- a   common sense look at what may happen, pointing out the possibilities  and the meteorology behind them, suggesting things people should  watch for. This kind of "hype" keeps people well informed without  alarming them ... unless it's time to be alarmed.

Bad hype is runaway media coverage that suggests 3 days out that a  certain city WILL get buried by 2 feet of snow and have 60 mile an hour winds and then, if it fall shorts, cries and complains about how  inaccurate the weather people were when it was really their faulty,  poorly researched media coverage that caused the problems. This kind   of hype erodes public confidence and leaves people disbelieving and poorly informed ... even after the event has begun.

I'm pretty sold on how likely this noreaster is and how strong it  will be. Question is where, when, why, what (as in rain or snow), how  and how much.

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Subject: What went wrong March 4--6 and steps to fix it
Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001     From: Craig Allen

Absolutely terrific DT. Especially lesson 1.   ....  Kocin wrote a fantastic book with Ucellini. Because he  studied PAST storms down to the final dotted "i" doesn't make him a  perfect short range forecaster to come out and say this has implication of
being historic. Once that got out, it spread like wildfire. When the SR  models started to indicate otherwise,   we all looked for the one that would bring us the snowstorm anyway. I kept   looking at AVN and it's .2's and .15's and .24's and felt safe in holding    the line. Thank goodness part of my region got hammered. A few vicious   emails from the NYC area on south. Many good emails from the HV, CT and  eastern LI.   My heart goes out to guys like Bolaris and Gigi who have received death   threats.

Craig
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subject: Post storm analysis     Date: Mon, 12 Mar 2001    From: "Vincent"

DT,

Thanks so much for your analysis. I've often been interested in reading how these things
behave (compared to the models), how we humans behave in the face of it all, etc.

Great job and I must say that I'm impressed by the fact that you saw this event coming from a long ways off.
Best regards, VDay
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subject: Your forecasts    Date: Sat, 10 Mar 2001    From: David Dehlinger 

I look forward to your reports/forecasts. We've always referred to the Weather Channel   as the "adjuster channel". But with their self serving hype, they are turning most of us off  as being just prophets of doom for ratings and advertising $. Keep up the accurracy. It's  much more important than watching Dr. John unsmiling face.

Dave Dehlinger
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Subject: Last Model Tracker    Date : Tue, 6 Mar 2001     From: Anthony J Pann "

Amen! To your last discussion on the model tracker. Keep up the good work! Those of us that have to concentrate on the micro  short term forecast appreciate and enjoy reading your insight on the medium to long range stuff.

Tony Pann  WCBS TV
New York
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Subject:  N Ohio    Date:  Thu, 25 Jan 2001 10:14:01 
From:  Cathy Frankfather      To: wthrman@home.com

Goodmorning Dave,

We here in the computer science department of Bowling Green State  University follow your site .... other weather forum everyday. It is the
only weather forum that ever talks somewhat about our area.

Actually, we have learned a great deal about reading maps and watching the  weather from you, (not that we know what we are looking at half the time) but it is what you say about the maps that help us understand.

Bowling Green, Ohio is about 30 miles south of Toledo, Ohio, so if you see anything nasty coming our way, if you could point this out, we would appreciate it. As I said above, we do watch your site and look at the maps, but sometimes we get very confused on what is going on.

I know we should sign up for your service, but we are poor college students just trying to learn from you on the lowest level on how to read things on these (sometimes) most confusing and ever changing maps. Most appreciated and Thank You!!
Cathy
ED---   Always  love to help and teach what I can...

Subject:  home page and modeltracker page    Date: Sun, 14 Jan 2001 09:33:26 -0500
From:  ace5  To:  weatherman@wxrisk.com

mr.tolleris:

i am thrilled of discovering your website;  i enjoy your analysis predictions; for myself,your written passages are most enlightening and interesting; if   possible,please continue it for us weather enthusiasts.

Subject:  Best wx site on the net    Date:  Tue, 9 Jan 2001 22:32:27 -0800 (PST)
Comments:

Increasingly the most intelligent weather site on the net. Am benefiting from what looks like a trend toward putting the bulk of your model comments on the respective models. Again educational and intelligent. Good to see you upgrading your site. Understand your thrust is to provide info for commercial users but I suspect there could be profit potential in evolving this site as appropriately fee structured for wx inclined people who don't have a commercial involvement. No one else is providing a simular site. Good luck whatever you do.

Subject:   Weather South America    Date:  Mon, 8 Jan 2001 14:28:39 -0600
From:   "Lillian Allen"    To: <weatherman@wxrisk.com>

Your weather forcast supersede any service bar none that I have every encountered. Trust me, as long as I have been around these markets, I've spent a lot of money for worthless services.  The BEST I have ever seen.

Do you ever cover South America ie, Brazil, Argentina,Australia?
Lillian Allen

ED--YES I do now.

Subject: ------  Date: Tue, 02 Jan 2001 10:00:22 -0500
From:    someone semi famous in another company in PA  and a NCAA football fanatic!
To:   weatherman@wxrisk.com

what a call.!  You nailed exactly the nature of the snow ( the DEC 30 Noreaster ) with the sharp cutoff and it was nothing short of dramatic. Accounts from the area   around PHL was it went from clear with a cloud deck like a hurricane to the east to blinding snow in 20 miles. The "spread" as I alluded was far north of what I thought, mainly through New York.  It was a super call.   Awesome call dude.

Subject:  Re: FIRST LOOK AT 00Z DEC 29     Date: Fri, 29 Dec 2000 10:50:28 -0500
From:   Jack Ziegler    To: wxrisk <wthrman@home.com>

Hi Dave,

Good job, you are the only one who hasn't flopped around like a fish out of water with this thing  I the Noreaster ...). I sure hope it works out the way you've described it.  What's the latest for NW Jersey?

Jack

Subject:  The year of the BIG DOG!   Date:  Sun, 31 Dec 2000 18:00:44 -0500
From:  Jack Ziegle

Happy New Year Dave, to you and yours!  Once again you did a great job on this last storm. I got about 20 inches of
pure fluff. A beautiful thing to see!  Well, I gotta go... Have a safe one and will talk to you next year! I hope
it's the year of the BIG DOG!

Jack

Subject:  RE: wxrisk DEC 20 WEATHER TRADERS EDGE     Date: Sun, 24 Dec 2000 10:36:16 -0600
From:   "Mike Bendas  To:  <weatherman@wxrisk.com>

Wanted to wish you a very Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Keep up the great work, nice to see someone show the National Weather Service how its done right!! Keep up the superb work.
Mike Bendas

ED-- Thanks Mike  But NWS is not really geared for forecasts in the commodities markets.  I am glad I can make you  $$$ but the comparison is a little unfair.!  IMO  through I have  had my differences with NWS they are the Best in the world day in and day out.  Without them I could not be in business...

subject:  Good Job   Date:   Fri, 22 Dec 2000 14:34:57 -0500
From:   Cory Fowler  To: weatherman@wxrisk.com

I admire and greatly respect your forecasts! You have been right time and  time again! However if you have time to respond to this e-mail directly I  would really like some insight on the week of 12/25-1/1/01 on what to expect  in Northern VA about 20 miles east of Washington D.C.! Again thanks for  your time and keep up the good forecasts.

Cory Fowler
SureCode Technologies

ED I told Mr Fowler about the Noreaster threat DEC 29--30  which   in a large sense was a good extended forecast but in VA and DC there was not even a flake of snow on DEC 30.   And that is one of the problems you have in this time frame.  In the overall sense my 7-8 day forecast of the Dec 30 Noreaster was a Good -- even excellent forecast-- but if you were in VA and MD  you ended up pretty angry at the missed snow. MOST  folks are smart of enough to realize that at a Day 7 or day 4 time frame the EXACT snow no snow  or rain no rain line can be VERY hard to place.    Some folks say  "hey for a 5 day  forecast  I was pretty good"....  some folks seem to forget its a 7 day forecast. Oh well.

Subject:  Great Job!!     Date:  Tue, 19 Dec 2000 10:05:52 -0500
From:   "LEGETTE, RANDY"   To: "'wthrman@home.com'" <wthrman@home.com>

Dammit man, I have to give you credit where credit is due! You rode this thing hard despite the models and it looks like you may be
right. For this event, you have my blind faith. Great job!

ED.... Like I said  a Hot streak Dec 2000!  BUT  thanks for the kind words anyway!

Subject:  accuracy  Date:  Sun, 17 Dec 2000 17:07:21 -0800 (PST)
From:  Robert Gamble  To: weatherman@wxrisk.com

I've been following your discussions....your accuracy is astounding, all things considered   and I should know since I am a Meteorologist. . I was wondering if you are part of another business, or is this solely it? Do you hire other meteorologists? I am seeking work in the field  Like Ii said I am degreed).

ED:  To be fair I was on a HOT streak in DEC 2000.     The fact is dealing with the time frame I do -- high detail in the   36 hr to 12 day time frame  there are going to be some misses. That is just a fact of life.

Subject:   CHICAGO  snowstorm  Congrats!
Date: Tue, 12 Dec 2000 09:41:59 -0500
From:  Sam :    To:WXRisk <weatherman@wxrisk.com>

Good call on the snowstorm!!!  6-12 inches 4-5 days out. Hell NWS the day before had 4-8 inches!  My relatives had 14.5"!

Subject:  weather enthusiast
Date:  Wed, 06 Dec 2000 23:24:58 -0500
From:  03ROSE     To: weatherman@wxrisk.com

I am currently a college student at school in Washington DC and I live near philadelphia PA. I am a regular visitor to your site and I love the unbiased  and true forecasts that you bring to the table. Last yrs big JAN snow was a  great call by you and hopefully there will be many more this year. I am  driving home on the 15th of DEC and I am very concerned about the ice event.  What are the chances of this materializing? How does a white christmas look?  and how about the rest of the winter in terms of snowfall?? thanks for you
weather insight.

A weather enthusiast

EDITORIAL:   I did OK with the January 25 2000  snowstorm but when it hit I has been hospitalized with pneumonia and had just gotten home. I would done  a lot better if I could of been able to breath!.  Scott Simard   deserves special recognition for an outstanding piece of forecasting by a internse amatuer/ hobbyist. fanatic.

Subject:  David, I feel like a fool!
Date:  Sun, 22 Oct 2000 22:36:12 -0400 (EDT)
From:  PerryXXL   To: weatherman@wxrisk.com

Hi!
Well, I feel like a real dope....while surfing the web tonight, I  stumbled onto you're listing on the CASI site.. I put 2 and 2 together..and realized that WxRisk...initials DT...is you. I admire you and you're forecasting knowledge--you nailed hurricane Keith perfectly--and you're hurricane model page is awesome! I wish you the best! 
Take care,
perry L Willams

Subject: Inquiring Minds.....   Date:  Sat, 21 Oct 2000 00:20:41 -0400
From:  "Mielke, Michael E"
To : "'weatherman@wxrisk.com

Wxrisk,

I enjoy your site immensely. Your methods and presentation of your forecasts are refreshing!

I thought I read on wxrisk earlier in the week about your winter wx forecast being published on or before Oct. 20....I'm very interested in my areas' (SE lower MI) outlook for cold and snowy wx this season. I've heard that with "LaNada" in place, the country in general will experience a colder season. At least colder than the last 3 winters.   Anxiously awaiting your outlook.....

Thanks.
Mike Mielke

Subject: Great Forecasting    Date:Mon, 16 Oct 2000 10:28:18 -0500
From:  "Lillian Allen"
"David Tolleris" <weatherman@wxrisk.com>

I did use your information to have the nursery to mulch and seed my lawn friday. As of this morning, Parsons, KS received 2 inches of rain. Thanks for your good service. Might add I sold my wheat thursday.   made some good  $$$$.
Lillian Allen

Subject:  Thank You   Date Mon, 2 Oct 2000 11:49:49 EDT
From:   Tejasgyd@-----
To: weatherman@wxrisk.com

As a Cat Adjuster, I would like to Thank You for providing the CADO site with   information and forcasts of this type. I will be checking your site very   often as I find it very easy to read and understand. Again, Thanks for your   time and effort.

Subject: WINTER FORECAST
Date: Mon, 23 Oct 2000 20:31:27 -0400
From: BR
To:  weatherman@wxrisk.com

Been there, done that. Very impressive. The site is always great and the Winter forecast was a fun read
{it helps that it was cold and snowy} but the presentation was outstanding and easy to follow. Keep it up! Look forward
to your posts this winter.
BR
Hubbardston MA.

Subject:  Keith & Joyce
Date: Sun, 22 Oct 2000 22:36:12 -0400 (EDT)
To:  weatherman@wxrisk.com

....while surfing the web tonight, I stumbled onto you're listing on the CASI site..   I put 2 and 2 together..and realized that WxRisk...initials DT...is you. --I admire your forecasting knowledge--you nailed hurricane Keith  and Leslie perfectly--and you're hurricane model page is awesome! I wish you the best!
Take care,    PW 

Subject:  Inquiring Minds.....
Date:  Sat, 21 Oct 2000 00:20:41 -0400
Wxrisk,

I enjoy your site immensely. Your methods and presentation of your forecasts are refreshing!

I thought I read on wxrisk earlier in the week about your winter wx forecast being published on or before Oct. 20....I'm very interested in my areas' (SE lower MI) outlook for cold and snowy wx this season. I've heard that with At least colder than the last 3 winters.
Anxiously awaiting your outlook.....  Thanks.

Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2000 10:28:18 -0500
To  weatherman@wxrisk.com

... However, I did use your information to have the nursery to mulch and seed my lawn friday. As of this morning, Parsons, KS received 2 inches of rain. Thanks for your good service. Might add I sold my wheat thursday.
L. A.

Re: Oct 13: Recent Forecast
Date:  Fri, 17 Oct 1980 18:53:34 -0700
To: "WXRisk" <weatherman@wxrisk.com

Thank you so much for the information. I look forward to reading the upcoming comments. Love your website.

Subject:   Hurricanes
Date: Wed, 11 Oct 2000 18:04:05 EDT
To: weatherman@wxrisk.com

Thanks for the reply, I am a claims adjuster located in Carolina Beach NC, we seem to attract hurricanes, but we have plenty of work without one, but I do certainly look at your weather site, good luck.

Date:  Mon, 2 Oct 2000 11:49:49 EDT
weatherman@wxrisk.com

As a Cat Adjuster, I would like to Thank You for providing the CADO site with information and forcasts of this type. I will be checking your site very often as I find it very easy to read and understand. Again, Thanks for your
time and effort.

D Barefield

name: Bill Brown  Date: 25 Jun 2000
Comments:

I used to think I knew alot about how to read weather charts and trends until I saw yours. Now I know how much I don't know. I trade commodities,mainly metals and grains.Your service  will help in making decisions based on long term weather forecasts. Impressive site and you seem to do better than other weather info providers.

Tim Hannagan is a 23 year veteran of the commodities markets. Tim is a specialist in domestic and global grain trade and has garnered national recognition  6/01/200 P.m. update
Corn:

Corn opened higher as expected off Wednesday 6 to 10 day N.W.S. forecast for much above normal temperatures  and below normal rainfall to return to the Midwest corn and bean belt states. Traders who had abandoned long  positions the last week and half came back in lightly today, with the thinking this forecast could be the beginning of  the longer term drought forecast from N.O.A.A. and the N.W.S. Their 90 day forecasts call for warmer and dryer   than normal conditions to prevail across the eastern and western grain belt. Growers are telling me that we need a
week of sunny drier weather to improve conditions as we have been too wet. Low lands have experienced a lot of  ponding and pooling leading to replanting. Corn came very close to filling the gap on the charts left from Tuesdays  sharp drop. I pointed out, grains fill small gaps within 5 days of making them with about 85% accuracy. There looks    to be another small system of weather which looks to bring rain Sunday into Monday in our western grain belt states   of Iowa and Nebraska. This could lead to a lower opening Monday, which could be a good buying opportunity going   into that period of June 6 to 10 that the N.W.S. calls to be very hot and dry. Hats off to private weather forecaster  David
Tolleris and his weather web site WXRISK.COM. He called all last week that models of weather were changing and  the N.W.S. would turn warmer and dryer starting Monday on their forecast update, he was right.

Tim Hannagan is a 23 year veteran of the commodities markets. Tim is a specialist in domestic and global grain trade and has garnered national recognition.
6/23/00 p.m. update
CORN:

Lets address the demand side of the market first. note, demand is about 5% of the pricing volatility as we enter the pollination stage for corn and  the pod filling stage for beans, which runs from June 30 through July 20. Weather is 95% of the pricing volatility until this crop is made. On the demand side our Monday export inspection report showed 29.2 million bushels were inspected for near term export, off from the 4-week average  of 31.5 m.b. Thursdays weekly export sales report showed 955 thousand tons of corn was sold last week, up 6% over the 4-week average.    Sales are running about 11% better than a year ago this time due to expanded feed needs. Monday's crop condition report put our corn crop at 72% in good to excellent  conditions up 3% from the week prior due to good rains. This puts corn on an equal pace, quality wise to a year ago. So, lets relive this item as  quality levers and prices responded together. With timely rain last year we saw the quality level on Thursday June 27 at 77% good to excellent  and December corn futures close at 2.23. On July 6 quality came in at 77% and December futures at 2.05, on July 12 quality read 78% and  December futures 1.94. The next week we turned hot and dry and quality came in at 72% on July 19 and December futures finished at 2.05   high. By August 10 quality sank to 58% and futures to 2.44. It's all up to weather now. Good rain through July and we will price a season low in,  if we turn dry and take the top of this market we'll turn up sharply especially with the good demand picture. Next week looks to be very cool and   wet across the major corn and bean producing states of Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Missouri. When we came in Monday if rain   totals look to push 2 to 3 inches with 70% coverage or better July will push to test last years 1.94 low. This crop will be made or lost the next 4   weeks. The trade won't look at rain totals from a general perspective after next week. They will begin to break each producing state down to    quarters for moisture and yield development. Your N.W.S. Monday-Wednesday and Friday updates will be traded off of heavily. To get an edge  on what those forecasts may say consider turning to WXRISK.com with Dave Tolleris, he's been right on all summer.

6/28/2000
Gloat away, you've earned it. Just keep being right! :)
Jim Gerlach    A/C Trading Co.

Shawn Woollen 

Comments: WOW! What a fine site. I like the way you show the upper air progs to explain why you are going with the predictions that you are. Being a farmer in SC Nebraska I have found this site a must. Keep up the good work. Makes all those other weather sites look rather... silly. So long Accu-Weather!!
Oh, and one more thing- GO HUSKERS!

Thu, 23 Sep 1999 12:39:46 -0500 (CDT) 
Patricia Herman
Comments: I like this website - lots of information and other stuff!! Good Job!!!!

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Sat, 6 Nov 1999 19:52:33 -0600 (CST)
Pete Clark

This site rocks....one of the best I have seen in a while....keep up the good job, if u can maybe try to make a winter storm archive

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Tue, 9 Nov 1999 11:40:42 -0600 (CST)

Comments:
Very Nice site!! Thanks!
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Thu, 25 Nov 1999 18:37:12 -0600 (CST)

I love this site...however, i wud love to know when you update it...

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Wed, 15 Dec 1999 12:27:55 -0600 (CST)
name: Mitch Fitzpatrick

Comments:    Really nice job. I enjoy reading and learning about the forecasted weather. Your page is much better and informative then the wx channel.    Nice job, Keep it up please!!

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Fri, 17 Dec 1999 16:01:00 -0600 (CST)
Storm Field

Comments:
Dave;

Found your website and really thought it was pretty well done. I agree with your ambiguity=busted forecast althought there are lots of people here in the tri-state region to whom ambiguity=claiming accuracy.

The weather quotes are a good idea and while I knew Jim O'Brien I don't think anyone could claim that he was a font of knowledge regarding
atmospheric conditions. As I recall, Inaccuweather supplied all his forecasting material as Jim was a former dj and stand-up comedian.

Anyway, nice work and good luck....oh, yes please don't pick on Larry....he may be stuck in the "swamps of NJ" but they don't call him
the "Master of Disaster" for nothing!

Best,   Storm Field

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Fri, 17 Dec 1999 21:23:41 -0600 (CST)
name: Mitch Fitzpatrick

Comments:

I am a Wx GUru really enjoying your wx forecasts. HOWEVER, I would like to whatc know the acornums of some of the wording is you use.
Could you point me to the definitions of the terms used...such as "ECMWF" "SW" "MRF"  "OPMRF"
Thanks...mitch

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Sat, 18 Dec 1999 08:29:22 -0600 (CST)
Comments:

very nice site: Thank you

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Date: 22 Dec 1999  Time: 10:52:22

Comments: I have found your wx page to be very informative and want to commend you on the great job you are doing  and the great info you are providing. I have always enjoyed studying the weather and the workings of the systems.  Thank you for your time!!    Also...HAVE A MERRY CHRISTMAS!

YOU DESERVE IT

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name: C Adams  Date: 24 Dec 1999

Comments:

Dear Sir (s)

I am about to heap a lot of praise on you for your predictions! I've been checking out this site lately and have found it to be very interesting, but I   approached it with much caution due to my local weatherguessers and NWS  ******* !    Mid last week you were calling for this snow we received here   in Louisville, as of last night the idiots here said 1 in possible and this was after they had been calling for possible "flurries" all week! Your site said if   I remember correctly "a significant even" in terms of snow for our region. Well to make a long story short we got about 5 inches of snow last night   making for a wonderful White Christmas! So I hope you enjoy this helping of praise you deserve it for having the guts to call things a week in advance  when most of these other idiots are wrong hours in advance nor have the guts to predict 7 days with any accuracy whatsoever. I am a individual so I   really don't have reason to buy your forecasts but just wanted to let ya know you have a great site and I hope you continue to post information as you do now!

Merry Christmas and happy New Year!
P.S. I wish I had bet on a local promotion at a hot tub distributor which said if there's 1 inch on the ground Christmas day your hot tub is free!
You could have made me upwards to 5,000.00 based on the type of tub of course!

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Tue, 4 Jan 2000 13:28:41 -0800 (PST)

Comments: Hey.. Keep up the drawings and explanations on the maps. I am finding your wx discussions VERY informative.
and really enjoy learning the different weather features.  This page and the work you are doing is GREAT!!
Thank you and please keep it up.

=================================================================

Fri, 7 Jan 2000     name: Glenn Fletcher

Comments:

I have been following daily, as promised, your forecasts since I discovered this site especially the "modeltracker" commentary. I reviewed today's NWS CPC discussion of the 6-10 day outlook & the extended outlook. Guess what? The negative NAO phase is showing up in the summary via the  anticipated high latitude blocking near Greenland. It also points out the conflict between the model- forecasted North Pacific ridge & the Greenland   block. Very interesting...like I've heard this before somewhere. There's nothing I would like more than to see winter take control FINALLY. I am a true    winter fan when in season. Hopefully your prediction of a major pattern change verifies including big snow & cold in the East. I certainly am looking   forward to next week to see what, if anything develops. Want to say that the technical discussion at WxRisk.com is greatly appreciated. I'm learning a   lot about the large scale wave pattern features in the Northern Hemisphere. If the big change holds true you may very well be my hero. Just kidding. The real fly in the oinment is this big low that is parked near or south of Alaska. It seems to remain   strong in the models far out in time. If not there I suspect an outcry would be heard across the USA from a violent attack of "Siberian Express". I've  seen what can happen when cold air of that magnitude is able to reach far to the south. I recall Jan.10/11, 1982 being billed as "the coldest day of the  century". Can you guess the source region of that air mass?

Good work.

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Wed, 12 Jan 2000
Comments:   well...well look what we have here.  Aaaahhh.. a MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE!. .WHO SAID THAT THIS WAS GOING TO HAPPEN?    OOHH YEA.. THAT SITE CALLED WXRISK.COM

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Sat, 8 Jan 2000 18:48:44 -0800 (PST)

GET THIS!! Your favorite people at the  WChannel are saying now that there are no signs of that VERY COLD air making any movement southward    in the next 7 days. Could this be true. It will stay warm in the US. What maps are they looking at??? Somebody PLEASE tell them to do there homework.

===============================================================

Mon, 17 Jan 2000 19:57:51 -0800 (PST)

Comments:

Congratulations On Nice Web Site.  Where can I find AVNX and UKMET on the web. Keep up the good work.
Tony Petrarca Chief Meteorologist  
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Thu, 20 Jan 2000

Been living on the edge with your call for Jan 20 middle atlantic event. Bingo! Your call for 4-6 through central De and we got 5. Hope you put out a  similar map for Sunday's- Monday's storm. That foot sounds great! Our concern with regard to snow events is the warm water of the atlantic.    Rain was sooooo close this time.

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Fri, 21 Jan 2000
Comments:

This is a great site. I am an amateur Meteorologist, self-trained in the Emory Univ. Library in Atl. Ga. At last I can have access to forecast maps,
synopses, etc. I too take pride in my forecast abilities, having firmly believed the 1-3 inches of snow forecast for Bangor for  1-21-00 to be too low  We're up to about 5" and climbing as of 14:00. Please keep the delightfully opinionated forecasts and synopses coming!!

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Sun, 23 Jan 2000   name: Tom Adams
Comments:

David,

As to the monster ocean storm ( 1/21 )just want to say that you sorted through the models like a wizard.  Out performing all forecasters that i am
aware issued a forecast for that storm.  I will never scoff/deride you again!

Yours truly Tom Adams
PS If I had disposable income or ran a Business and I needed a forecast, I'd come to you.

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Date: 24 Jan 2000      Time: 05:11:52

Comments

AGAIN.....ANOTHER GOES TO THE EAST AND IS A MISS   ALL OF THESE STORMS ARE STAYING TO THE EAST

This  Email  as it turned out  has been nominated for BONEHEADED DORK of the year. 24 hours after this  guy sent me the email  Charlottle NC has 21 inches of  snow  --also known as GOING OUT TO SEA ,  Richmond has 15-18 inches   DC and Northern VA 12-15 inches    BWI and PHL   6-10 inches...   Hey when you listen to the WX channel  that is what ya get.

===============================================================

Mon, 24 Jan 2000     name: kevin carry

Comments:

once again you guys have hit the nail on the head,while accu-weather,nws,twc,and locals in the phila area were playing down the forcast for tues. you guys seen this comin and read the stats right and called it 4-days ago, thanks for keeping us correctly informed on weather happenings well in advance of the event.

==================================================================

Tue, 25 Jan 2000

Comments:

You had to have made the greatest forecast of the year. Most, if not all models showing nothing..except NOGAPS you did your homework.
I could not believe what I was seeing when Icould see it beginning. SIMPLY AMAZING!!! Please take a minute and reliaze just what a
good job you have done.

==============================================================

Tue, 25 Jan 2000 04:21:34 -0800 (PST)
Comments: NICE CALL all the way from Jan 18!! Get well soon!!

=======================================================================

Tue, 25 Jan 2000   name: Marc Jones   Comments:

You should call this one a hit, you had a big storm pegged since last week, even yesterday @ 5 PM local forcasts in Philly were only calling
for 1 to 2 inches, now we are talking 1 foot or more! Great job, I was skeptical because I thought maybe you were off, but I was overjoyed this
morning! Good job! I bow at your alter of weather!  Get well soon, looks like we are going to need you for February! Also, good work on the
overall winter forecast this year, you have been right on target since Thanksgiving!

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Tue, 25 Jan 2000 09:47:28 -0800 (PST)

name: John Eaton Fleet weather

Comments:

Well,    As a fellow forecaster my opinions may surprise you but i think to call this a hit would be cheating ourselves a little. Yes we more or less nailed the snow event   albeit a day earlier but the deepening of the low off the southeast coast in response to the first and obviously "right place at the right time" vort that rounded the  base of the trough and blew the low up was not really anything you, myself or anybody else that i had conferenced last week nailed. The dynamics of the wed/thur   storm if you remember was solely dependent on the position of the cut off 500mb low and how it would capture the "developing" storm off hatteras which would    be spawned by the second shortwave. clearly not the same thing but i think that the fact most of the forecasters i had talked to and work with all thought there would be something big coming up with alot of the right elements into place. it was a matter of coming together. it did...36 hours earlier and a different shortwave......the public!

thinks it was the same storm just "quicker" but we all know it wasnt....:-)

=============================================================

Wed, 26 Jan 2000    Comments:

Dave, Great call on the storm. I saw several articles in DTN Daybreak news where NWS --------------------- said they were cursing the computer models, and   another said they were all eating humble pie. Thanks for the good work. We were ready even if it was a little earlier than originally thought. You got it right   again. No wonder I trust you more than the locals!

=====================================================

Thu, 27 Jan 2000 1

SNOW...NOT HERE!!!  You are soo right. The local wx experts are saying warm with Rain maybe changing to snow BUT...nothing big at all!!
You nailed that last forecast on the money. Your rather scary, you were so good!   Hope you do the same. Incredible!!
Also....The natl WX service did not see that last storm....HUHHH ??? You care to teach them something??

===============================================================================

Tue, 1 Feb 2000

You have a great sight. I really enjoy reading weather  discussions from a non-NWS perspective. Can you tell
me of any other sites that have similar discussion to yours? Thanks and keep up the good work.

================================================================

name: Glenn Fletcher

Comments:

Your recent analysis of weather trends, especially the lack of a big warm-up in the East is excellent. You are not the only one who is suspicious of the MRF.   I'm pretty sure you have read this but wanted to send you a portion of the 2/1 extended forecast discussion from the NWS. Keep up the good work.

"AGAIN NO WARMING TREND AS PER MRF AND MOS. WE HAVE AGAIN LOWERED TEMPS 10 DEGREES OR MORE IN THE 4 TO 7
DAY PERIOD WITH SOME LOCATIONS EVEN COOLER UNDER COLD ADVECTION AND WITH SNOW/ICE COVER FROM
NORTHEAST TO CAROLINAS PIEDMONT. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SOLUTION OF MUCH COOLER TEMPS...POSSIBLY NOT
FORECAST COLD ENOUGH...WILL WAIT ANOTHER RUN."

==============================================================

Fri, 4 Feb 2000   name: Tony Pann    Comments:

I am a meteorologist with WBAL TV in Baltimore.(yes,I have a B.S.in Met.)I just want to say we enjoy reading your exetended discussion here
in the wx office and very often take your advice in our 7day! Keep up the great work!

Tony Pann

======================================================

Fri, 4 Feb 2000      name: Gregory C. Zambaras

Comments:

Although I am relatively new to your site, I thoroughly enjoy your work. I can be described as a weather enthusiast, and your comentary is not only   educational but entertaining as well. I love how you attack the phonies in the industry of weather forecasting(CNN, TWC,etc) (Just a side note: Why  are the TWC "weekly planner" forecasts SO BAD? They change everyday. I can't believe that was what I depended on until I got online.) Your call on  the Nor'easter of Jan 25 was beautiful, even when most forecasters were going away from it. I was able to impress a number of people with the advance   warning that "I" provided by following your commentary on the prospective event. "Biggest Nor'easter to hit NE since Jan '96." Nice. It was funny to see  the HPC echo that comment a few days in advance and then go away from it. Keep up the good work. And do what you can to keep the snow coming   here in SE PA, it's winter again!

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Sat, 5 Feb 2000    Comments:

I am a meteorologist at WBAL in Baltimore. I have recieved my degree in meteorology from Cornell University. Along with my 3 colleagues, we are  considered diligentand thorough. Hats off to you for your work, as we will keep this web site as part of our daily routines. One note however, out Cheif   decided to go with you analysis and prog of a storm for Feb 8 (Tues). A bit early to bite and considering you latest explanation and my research... perhaps  a bit to hungry for another storm. I can respect your eloquence or lack there-of..however you must rememeber one thing. Forecasters..especially us in the   media bare the brunt of the public's attention for these events. It is a lot easier to be gung-ho on a storm (tomorrow ro next week) when you are not presenting   it to the public. A hunch sometimes works and sometimes does not, but creating panic in the public for our pleasure is not our job. Our side of caution in   extended forecast reflects this. For the record, we nailed!

that Tuesday storm before the models caught on. However saying " A foot of snow" while everyone else says nothing was nerve-racking. Keep up your    work, but perhold you should hold back on the optimism of a BIG STORM a week ahead of time. The Chaos Theort will always surprise you!!! One last   thing, if the Canadian Model has such a bad bias, and environmental Canada is notorious for bogus forecast..why refer to their model all of the time????

=========================================================

Tue, 15 Feb 2000  Comments:

I just wanted to take a minute to thank you for your forcasts, and your web site. I look forward to reading your forcasts daily- it's the first thing I do when I  get to work and have my first cup of coffee. Although some of the recent forcasts have been depressing for me (I live in Ohio and want a big storm desperately),  they are usually more accurate than our local weather! Anyway, I hope that what you're seeing now with regards to an Ohio storm this weekend doesn't change- I live near Dayton and would love to be snowbound! Again, thank you for your time and for sharing your knowledge with us weather nuts. I really enjoy your  website! PS...Hope you and your little one are feeling better!