ABOUT THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN LAST WEEK OF MAY
Just to give you an update on the possibility of a Tropical Depression / Tropical storm or even the outside chance of a minimal Hurricane developing in the northwest Caribbean this weekend and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and/or the Southeastern states next week: That threat is now gone. Over. Done.
As in NOT FOOKING HAPPENING
I had mentioned this possibility in the newsletter and several other places on the Facebook page and on the Twitter page because other private forecasters had obviously talked about it as well. In addition the operational GFS model which is run 4 times a day -has been showing this system consistently for 6 days
That’s 24 model runs. Consecutive model runs. Seems pretty damn consistent and impressive doesn’t it?
The reason why I have been very cautious in talking about this outside possibility and down playing it has to do with two specific reasons.
First the state of the various weather models right now that meteorologists and real forecasters use. The gap in the quality between the European, the British, the GFS, the Canadian, has become quite small with all the recent upgrades. Last winter the GFS had several successes while the European model consistently showed Big East Coast snow storms in the 6 to 10 day which never happened. Moreover, in last year’s hurricane season the upgraded GFS model had several significant early detection of tropical Cyclone development.
But in THIS particular instance NONE of the other models had EVER showed any kind of Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. None of them. Not on any of the model cycles in the past five or six days. That is always a warning sign because again since the weather models have become much better in terms of quality and performance, one of these other weather models besides the GFS should have detected something over the past five or six days. The fact that they never did is a warning sign to experienced meteorologists that the GFS solution in this particular instance was ….well Tyrannosaurus dung.
The other problem this solution has to do with the actual development of the system on the GFS models.
IMAGE #1 from the Monday 18z/ 8pm operational GFS model. The map on the left shows the Models predicted surface valid 5/27. A 967mb category 2 hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico. BUT…. the map on the right shows the WIND SHEAR at the middle levels of the atmosphere. Notice the dark orange areas. That color represents a wind shear of 50 knots !!!! –that is to say strong west to east winds right across the top of the hurricane and covering the entire northern half of the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Southeastern states. It is simply a physical impossibility to get a hurricane with that incredible amount of wind shear whether it’s late May or the middle of September. This solution offered by the GFS model simply cannot take place.
IMAGE #2 is from the Tuesday 18z/ 8pm operational GFS model. The map on the left shows a stunningly intense Category 3 hurricane on 5/30 in the SE Gulf of Mexico. The map on the right shows wind shear of 50 knots ( dark orange) right across the top of the hurricane and covering the entire northern half of the Gulf of Mexico as well as the southeastern states. It is simply a physical impossibility to get a hurricane that is strong with that incredible amount of wind shear whether it’s late May or the middle of September. This solution offered by the GFS model simply cannot take place.
SUMMARY – so no …there is NOT going to be a Tropical Depression and/ or Tropical Storm threat of any kind coming up next week that I can see in any portion of the NW Caribbean ….Bahamas ….or the Gulf of Mexico.
Stand Down the bombers …fire up the grill …get the pool ready …stop yelling at your neighbors and everybody play nice …Memorial Day is coming and the weather looks ideal for the eastern US. Don’t make me turn this car around