ABOUT THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE THREAT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN LAST WEEK OF MAY

 STARDATE  202205.19


Just to give you an update on the possibility of a Tropical Depression / Tropical storm or even the outside chance of a minimal Hurricane developing in the northwest Caribbean this weekend and moving into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and/or the Southeastern states next week:    That threat is now gone. Over.   Done. 

 As in NOT FOOKING HAPPENING 

I had mentioned  this possibility in the newsletter and several other places on the Facebook page and on the Twitter page because other private forecasters had  obviously talked about it as well. In addition the operational GFS model  which is run 4 times a day -has been showing this system consistently for 6 days

 That’s 24  model runs.  Consecutive model runs.  Seems pretty damn consistent and impressive doesn’t it?

The reason why I have been very cautious in talking about this outside possibility and down playing it has to do with two specific reasons.

First the state of the various weather models right now that  meteorologists and real forecasters use.  The gap in the quality between the European, the British, the GFS, the Canadian, has become quite small with all the recent upgrades. Last winter the GFS had several successes while the European model consistently showed Big East Coast snow storms in the 6 to 10 day which never happened. Moreover, in last year’s hurricane season the upgraded GFS model had several significant early detection of tropical Cyclone development.

 But in THIS  particular instance NONE of the other models had EVER  showed any kind of Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm. None of them.  Not on any of the model cycles in the past five or six days. That is always a warning sign because again since the weather models have become much better in terms of quality and performance, one of these other weather models  besides  the GFS should have detected something over the past five or six days. The fact that they never did is a warning sign to experienced meteorologists that the GFS solution in this particular instance was ….well Tyrannosaurus dung. 

The other problem this solution has to do with the actual development of the system on the GFS models.

IMAGE #1  from the Monday  18z/ 8pm   operational GFS model. The map on the left shows  the Models predicted  surface  valid  5/27. A 967mb category 2  hurricane in the central  Gulf of Mexico.  BUT…. the map on the right shows the  WIND SHEAR  at the middle levels of the atmosphere.  Notice the dark orange areas.  That color represents a wind shear of  50 knots !!!!  –that is to say strong  west to  east winds right across the top of the hurricane and covering the entire northern half of the Gulf of Mexico as well as the Southeastern states.  It is simply a physical impossibility to get a hurricane with that incredible amount of wind shear whether it’s late May or the middle of September. This solution offered by the GFS model simply cannot take place.

 

 

IMAGE  #2  is  from the Tuesday  18z/ 8pm  operational GFS model.  The map  on the left shows a stunningly intense Category 3 hurricane  on  5/30 in the SE Gulf of Mexico.  The map  on the right shows wind shear of  50 knots  ( dark orange)  right across the top of the hurricane and covering the entire northern half of the Gulf of Mexico as well as the southeastern states. It is simply a physical impossibility to get a hurricane that is  strong with that incredible amount of wind shear whether it’s late May or the middle of September. This  solution offered by the GFS model simply cannot take place.

 

  SUMMARY  –  so no …there is  NOT going to be a Tropical Depression  and/ or  Tropical Storm threat of any kind coming up next week that I can see in any portion of the NW  Caribbean ….Bahamas ….or the Gulf of Mexico.  

Stand Down the bombers …fire up the grill …get the pool ready …stop yelling at your neighbors and everybody play nice …Memorial Day is coming   and the  weather looks ideal  for the  eastern US.    Don’t make me turn this car around 

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